This page summarizes our studies on
health, mortality and lifespan in
Russia and the former Soviet Union.
Publications with weblinks to the full text are listed in a reversed
chronological order -- most recent articles go first. The list of
papers starts with publications in English, then the articles in
Russian follow with English abstracts provided:
Gavrilova N.S., Gavrilov L.A. Aging Populations:
Russia/Eastern Europe. In: P. Uhlenberg (Editor), International Handbook of the Demography
of Aging, New York: Springer-Verlag, 2009, pp.113-131.
Gavrilova N.S., Semyonova V.G., Dubrovina E., Evdokushkina G.N.,
Ivanova A.E., Gavrilov L.A. Russian
Mortality Crisis and the Quality of Vital Statistics. Population Research and Policy Review,
2008, 27: 551-574.
Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A.,
Semyonova, V.G., Evdokushkina, G.N., Ivanova, A.E. 2005. Patterns
of violent crime in Russia. In:
Pridemore, W.A. (ed.). Ruling
Russia: Law, Crime, and Justice in a
Changing Society. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publ.,
Inc,
117-145
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here
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G.,
Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. The response of
violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia. Population
Research and Policy Review,
2000, 19: 397-419.
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here
Ermakov, S.P., Antonyuk, V.V.,
Gavrilova, N.S., Evdokushkina, G.N. 1999. Factographic Automated
Information Reference System (FAISS-"Potential"). In: K. Peter (ed.). Proceedings of the
International Collaborative Effort on Automating Mortality Statistics,
Volume 1. Hyattsville, MD: NCHS, 1999. DHHS Publication No.(PHS)
99-1252. 19-1-19-2.
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here
Meeting papers:
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova V.G.,
Evdokushkina G.N., Ivanova A.E. Problems
with mortality data in Russia.
Full Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population
Association of America (Philadelphia, March 31 - April 2, 2005, oral
presentation), 22 pages. Abstract published in: Population Association
of America 2005 Annual Meeting. Final Program and Abstracts. p. 294.
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here
Gavrilova N.S., Semyonova V.G.,
Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A., Ivanova A.E. Recent
mortality trends in Russia: Differences between younger and older
generations. Paper presented at
the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America,
Minneapolis, May 2003
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here
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G.,
Evdokushkina, G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. 2001. "Mortality
crisis in Russia: New health threats".
Paper presented at the 13th Meeting of the International Network on
Health Expectancy (REVES-13), Vancouver, Canada
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here
Gavrilova, N.S., Evdokushkina, G.N.,
Semyonova, V.G., Gavrilov, L.A. 2001. "Economic
crises, stress and mortality in Russia". Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of
the Population Association of America (Washington, DC, March 23-25,
2001). Abstract published in: Population Association of America. 2001
Annual Meeting. Final Program and Abstracts. p.220-221
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here
Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G.,
Evdokushkina, G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. 1999. "The
response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia". Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of
the Population Association of America (New York, March 25-27, 1999).
Abstract published in: Population Association of America. 1999 Annual
Meeting. Final Program and Abstracts. 1999, p.169.
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here
Gavrilova
N.S., Evdokushkina G.N.,
Ermakov, S.P., Gavrilov L.A. An analysis of the health and mortality
data for the provinces of Russia. In: International Population
Conference. Beijing, 1997. Liege: IUSSP, 1997, vol.3, 1245-1257
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Gavrilova, N.S., Semyonova, V.G.,
Evdokushkina, G.N., Gavrilov, L.A. 2000. "Health responses to economic
changes in Russia". Paper presented at the 12th Meeting of the
International Network on Health Expectancy (REVES-12), Los Angeles, CA.
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Publications in Russian:
Semyonova V.G., Dubrovina E.V., Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N.,
Gavrilov
L.A. Potential for trauma mortality in the Russian
population of working age. Public
Health
and Disease Prevention,
2005, 2: 11-14.
Abstract
On the basis of analyzing medical death certificates the authors
substantiate their hypothesis that indeed, those individuals who died
at young ages from cardiovascular di ;ases or from "Symptoms, features
and inexactly identified conditions" belong to risk group of death from
injuries and poison.ng. The role of alcohol component in cardiological
mortality is discussed based on mortality patterns in some community
areas (Kirov region) and on drinking history of persons who died from
sudden coronary death or acute heart failure.
Semyonova V.G., Dubrovina E.V.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov
L.A. Estimates of the real levels of violent
death rates in Russia. Public
Health
and Disease Prevention,
2005, 3: 14-23.
Ivanova A.E., Semyonova V.G.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A. Mortality
trends: Role of particular age groups and causes of death in their
shaping. Public Health and Disease
Prevention [Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è
ïðîôèëàêòèêà çàáîëåâàíèé], 2004, 6: 3-9.
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here
Abstract:
The study showed that the Russian mortality picture during the period
of reforms had several features that significantly differed it from
that in the Soviet period (1965-1984): first, a substantial
"rejuvenation" of losses in life expectancies occurred at the expense
of adolescent and young ages, whereas prior to the reforms mortality
dynamics in these groups facilitated increase in life expectancies for
women; second, deformation in the structure of causes of death
occurred, which determine losses in life expectancies, evidencing
marginalization of mortality, especially in young ages; third, during
the period of reforms more negative tendencies in mortality in all ages
over 15 years and from all causes are found in women. It is argued that
the period of reforms became a stage of reverse development in
epidemiological situation with increasing significance of public health
problems relevant to the previous stages of the epidemiological
transition.
Semyonova V.G., Dubrovina E.V.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A. On the
problems of trauma mortality in Russia: Kirov region case. Public Health and Disease Prevention
[Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà
çàáîëåâàíèé], 2004, 3: 3-10.
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here
Abstract:
The authors' hypothesis on underestimated traumatic mortality,
especially at working ages, by masking predominantly mortality of the
marginal populations under diagnoses of the IDC-10 class "Symptoms,
signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere
classified" is discussed. Individual mortality data for 2003 in the
Kirov region had been analyzed. Arguments supporting underestimated
mortality due to injuries and poisoning in various regions of Russia
with high mortality rates due to inaccurately identified conditions at
working ages are provided.
Semyonova V.G., Gavrilova N.S.,
Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A. Data quality of
medical statistics as a problem of modern Russian health care. Public Health and Disease Prevention
[Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà
çàáîëåâàíèé], 2004, 2: 11-18.
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here
Abstract:
Quality of the Russian mortality statistics data is evaluated. As
markers it is offered to use death rates in the class "Symptoms,
features and inexactly identified conditions" according to the ICD-9,
or "Symptoms, features and deviations from the norm" according to the
ICD-10, as well as "Injuries, not specified "according to the ICD-9, or
"Injuries with indefinite intents "according to the ICD-10. Mortality
from inexactly identified conditions in 19892000 increased 5.9-fold in
men and 8.3-fold in women, while mortality from injuries (not
specified) increased 2.9 and 2.5 times accordingly, thus being
significantly higher than the total mortality rate growth. It is shown
that deterioration of the data quality has led to incorrect evaluation
of the health priorities and as a result to inadequate management
decisions.
See also discussion in Russian here
Ivanova A.E., Semyonova V.G.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Dubrovina E.V., Gavrilov L.A. Russian
mortality in 1965-2002 -- major problems and opportunities for decrease. Public Health and Disease Prevention
[Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà
çàáîëåâàíèé], 2004, 1: 20-30.
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here
Abstract:
Age-specific and nosologic characteristics of the Russian mortality
rates at various stages of their evolution during the period from
middle 1960s until nowadays are analyzed. It is shown that the Russian
mortality problems observed in the 21th century have developed
primarily before the onset of the socio-economic reforms. The role of
reforms expressed in acceleration of negative trends, deformation of
the age-specific mortality curves, increase of losses because of
exogenous causes which are preventable at the modern level of medical
care. Using a series of measures based on death rate tables the gains
in average lifespan from particular causes in various ages were
determined
Ivanova A.E., Semyonova V.G.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A., Devichenskaya M.N. Age patterns of
mortality in the urban and rural population of Russia in the 90s years
of the 20th century. Disease
Prevention and Health Promotion [Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol --
Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà çàáîëåâàíèé], 2003, 1: 17-26.
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here
Abstract:
Mortality rates characteristics of the Russian population in the main
age groups -- infants under 1 year old (infant mortality), children of
1-14 years old (children's mortality), general population of 20-59
years old (mortality at working ages) and of the population older 60
years (mortality at the elderly ages) were analyzed. It was shown that,
contrary to the common belief, the differences in mortality rates of
urban and rural population are concentrated at children's ages, rather
than working ages.
Semyonova V.G., Ivanova A.E.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A., Devichenskaya M.N. Medico-demographic
conditions in urban and rural areas – similarity and differences. Disease Prevention and Health Promotion
[Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà
çàáîëåâàíèé], 2002, 5: 8-14.
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here
Abstract:
Mortality rates in the urban and rural population of Russia in the
19990s were analyzed and compared. The study revealed: firstly, in the
structure of mortality of rural population there was a noticeably
higher proportion of causes of "unnatural" and violent death, as well
as mainly exogenous causes, i.e. these were, to greater extent, both
socially related causes and largely preventable ones at the current
stage of public health development. Secondly, the mean age at death due
to virtually all its causes was significantly younger in the rural
population (both males and females) than in the urban one. At the same
time the progression of unfavorable trends was much higher in the
cities than in the villages.
It is hypothesized that a pattern of mortality formed in the rural
population late in the 1980s had become a domain of attraction to which
the mortality of urban population was evolving during the 1990s.
Semyonova V.G., Ivanova A.E.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A. Regional
mortality variation as an indicator of health deterioration in the
Russian population. Disease
Prevention and Health Promotion [Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol --
Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà çàáîëåâàíèé], 2002, 4: 9-14.
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here
Abstract:
The distribution of mortality was studied in the main groups of the
population by Russia's regions in the late 1990s. It was shown to be
drastically changed during the economic reforms, these changes most
significantly affected regions with high-mortality rates. In the course
of the reforms, the Russian European North and its rural residents in
particular, suffered most greatly.
Ivanova A.E., Semyonova V.G.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A., Demchenko T.A. Mortality in
Russia in the 1990s and reserves of its reduction: Trends and
forecasting. Disease Prevention
and Health Promotion [Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå
çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà çàáîëåâàíèé], 2002, 3: 9-19.
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here
Abstract:
The authors studied the trends in mean life expectancy in Russia since
1964. They estimated the levels of excess mortality in the 1990s and
reserves for mortality decline for different age groups and causes of
death in the future, up to the year 2015. The relatively low level of
mortality observed in year 1989 was proposed as a potentially
achievable goal for future possible recovery of public health in
Russia. The mortality that is greater than in 1989 may be considered as
excessive and regarded as loss reduction reserves. In the 1990s, total
mortality rates at younger ages of 0-19 years were even lower than in
1989, while mortality had increased dramatically at older, working
ages. In the 1990s, the overall excess mortality amounted to deaths of
over 3 million individuals, mostly due to cardiovascular diseases
(1,238 thousand excess deaths), injuries and intoxication (1,047
thousand excess deaths), and unspecified conditions (625 thousand
excess deaths). Two thirds of excess losses of lives were shown to be
accounted for males, mostly at their working ages, among them, 32.2% of
male deaths and 23.6% of female deaths could have been prevented.
Semenova V.G., Gavrilova N.S.,
Varavikova Ye.A., Gavrilov L.A., Yevdokushkina G.N. Rise in violent death
rates in Russia as a consequence of the economic crisis. Diseases Prevention and Health Promotion
[Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol -- Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà
çàáîëåâàíèé], 2000, 4: 3-10.
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here
Abstract:
A contribution of violent causes of death to the unprecedented
peace-time mortality increases in Russia in the 1990s was studied.
Changes in mortality due to violence (suicides, murders, traffic
casualties, and incidental alcohol intoxications) in 1994 to 1997 were
examined using official statistics. For this period, the average life
span of Russian males and females reduced by 2.4 and 1.2 years,
respectively. Throughout this period, mortality rates due to injuries
and intoxications were extremely high: from 1993, this cause of death
for males occupied the second place in the pattern of mortality. The
same was true for females in some regions in certain years. The highest
mortality due to injuries and other causes of death was observed in
1994, but despite its beginning decline, mortality from the above
causes fell short of the initial level by 1997 by showing 1.4–1.8-fold
increases in 1991–1997. The age-specific pattern of mortality from
injuries and intoxications was explored in males and females of Russia.
By analyzing the hypotheses explaining the increase in injury and
intoxication mortality rates, the authors have concluded that its
determinant is the alcoholization of Russia’s population that is
greatly caused by the economic crisis.
Semenova V.G., Varavikova Ye.A.,
Gavrilova N.S., Evdokushkina G.N., Gavrilov L.A., Evolution of female
mortality due to injuries and intoxications in some regions of Russia
in the period of economic reforms.
Diseases Prevention and Health Promotion [Obshch Zdor Profilac Zabol --
Îáùåñòâåííîå çäîðîâüå è ïðîôèëàêòèêà çàáîëåâàíèé], 2000, 3: 29-31.
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here
Abstract:
The demographic consequences of economic reformation were studied in
females, a one of the most vulnerable and unprotected groups of
post-Soviet society. In 19891997, the average life-span expectancy of
Russian females reduced by 1,5 years, which largely resulted from
higher mortality due to violent causes of murders, suicides, accidental
alcohol intoxication, and the so-called injuries (unspecified). The aim
of the study was to examine processes occurring in the most unfavorable
areas of the Russian Federation. It is concluded that the determining
reason for higher mortality due to violent causes is the population’s
alcoholization substantially caused by economic crises.